Posts Tagged central banks

Go Bargain-Hunting With These 6 Undervalued Gold Stocks – Seeking Alpha

After running to new highs in 2011, gold has been taking a break and looks to be consolidating around the $1,600 per ounce level. this appears to be a healthy pause before a possible new leg in the long-term uptrend for this and other precious metals. Gold has been posting gains every year for the past 10 years and the factors that have supported higher gold prices still continue today. Factors that can push gold higher include rising demand from consumers for gold jewelry, and investors using gold as a hedge against inflation. Central banks around the world are continuing with loose money policies. Many believe that the European central bank will have to print euros to bail out Eurozone countries and banks in the future. these types of policies could ultimately raise the value of gold as it becomes a reserve currency for more investors.

One way to benefit from rising gold prices is to simply buy physical gold or a gold bullion exchange traded fund. However, much larger gains are possible when buying stock in gold mining companies. It is much more likely for shares in a gold mining company to double in a short time span rather than gold itself to double. with more risk comes more reward, but gold will never rise 50-100% in a single day because of a takeover offer, but some of these stocks could. Here are a number of gold stocks that are poised to benefit from the long-term uptrend in gold.

Great Basin Gold, ltd. (GBG) is a gold exploration and mining company with operations in Nevada, and Africa. Great Basin owns the high-potential "Hollister" mine in Nevada and the "Burnstone" mine in South Africa. It is in the exploration phase for gold projects located in Mozambique and Tanzania. the stock is trading close to book value, which is 93 cents per share. this stock was trading for over $2 in September 2011, and now trades at nearly half that level. Great Basin shares appear to be very undervalued and have started trending higher. At about $1 per share now this could be a classic "buy low" opportunity for investors who don’t mind owning a more volatile stock.

Here are some key points for GBG: Current share price: $1.02 the 52-week range is 86 cents to $2.85 Earnings estimates for 2011: 3 cents per share Earnings estimates for 2012: 21 cents per share

Golden Star Resources, ltd. (GSS) is a Colorado-based gold mining and exploration company. this company is operating two gold mines in Ghana and has gold exploration projects in Sierra Leone, Niger, and Brazil. the high-potential Bogoso/Prestea mine is 90% owned by Golden Star and 10% owned by the Government of Ghana. Golden Star has a solid balance sheet and a number of prominent institutions and gold funds have purchased shares of this company. the stock is deeply undervalued and trades just around book value, which is $1.67. Golden Star is likely to see increased production in 2012 and this could result in a solidly profitable year. if this stock stays below $2 for much longer, it would not be surprising to see a larger gold company make a bid to acquire Golden Star.

Here are some key points for GSS: Current share price: $1.74 the 52-week range is $1.50 to $4.24 Earnings estimates for 2011: a loss of 6 cents per share Earnings estimates for 2012: 27 cents per share

Goldcorp (GG) is Canadian-based gold exploration and mining company with operations in Canada, the United States, Mexico, and Central and South America. this company is focused on producing gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. Goldcorp pays a 54 cents per share dividend, which yields 1.2%. the book value is $25.76 and the company has a solid balance. this stock was trading for about $53 per share in December, but it has dropped to more reasonable levels. There seems to be strong support at about $43 per share, so pullbacks to that level would be prime buying opportunities.

Here are some key points for GG: Current share price: $44.87 the 52-week range is $39.04 to $56.31 Earnings estimates for 2011: $2.24 per share Earnings estimates for 2012: $2.65 per share

Yamana Gold (AUY) is a Canadian-based gold exploration and mining with projects in Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico, and Colombia. this company has about 8 mines that are currently producing gold and 3 are in development. All are located in South America. some investors feel that there is less geo-political risk in South American countries when compared with other places such as Africa. the book value is $9.80 per share and this company has a solid balance sheet. Yamana pays a 18 cent per share dividend, which yields 1.4%. this stock looks poised to make a new 52-week high when the gold rally resumes.

Here are some key points for AUY: Current share price: $15.52 the 52-week range is $10.88 to $17.47 Earnings estimates for 2011: 97 cents per share Earnings estimates for 2012: $1.23 per share

Taseko Mines ltd. (TGB) is a gold mining and exploration company, located in Canada. this company has gold exploration projects in British Columbia and it has stakes in the Gibraltar Copper Molybdenum Mine, the New Prosperity Gold-Copper Project, the Aley Niobium Project and the Harmony Gold Project. Taseko has a very strong balance sheet with cash exceeding debt by about $100 million. the stock trades at a small premium to book value, which is $2.53. this stock has been in an uptrend since early January. Buying on any dips is likely to reward long-term investors.

Here are some key points for TGB: Current share price: $3.39 the 52-week range is $2.30 to $6.38 Earnings estimates for 2011: 14 cents per share Earnings estimates for 2012: 26 cents per share

Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM) is a Colorado-based gold mining and exploration company. this company has gold exploration and mining operations in United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand, and Mexico. Newmont is one of the largest gold mining companies in the world and is a lower-risk way to invest in the long-term rise in gold. Newmont pays a dividend of $1.40, which yields 2.4%. this company has an excellent management team and a strong balance sheet. Newmont shares were trading around $67 in early December and are now trading at oversold levels. using the temporary weakness in gold and in Newmont Mining shares as a buying opportunity makes sense right now.

Here are some key points for NEM: Current share price: $57.48 the 52-week range is $50.05 to $72.42 Earnings estimates for 2011: $4.49 per share Earnings estimates for 2012: $5.64 per share

Data sourced from Yahoo Finance. No guarantees or representations are made.

Disclosure: I am long GSS.

Disclaimer: Hawkinvest is not a registered investment advisor and does not provide specific investment advice. the information is for informational purposes only. you should always consult a financial advisor.

Go Bargain-Hunting With These 6 Undervalued Gold Stocks – Seeking Alpha

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Gold rises nearly 2 percent on cenbank move, China

A machine engraves information on an ingot of 99.99 percent pure gold at the Krastsvetmet nonferrous metals plant in Russia’s Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, March 28, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Ilya Naymushin

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Gold rose nearly 2 percent on Wednesday and posted its biggest three-day rally in more than a month, with investors piling into bullion as a hedge against currency depreciation after central banks boosted liquidity for lenders.

Bullion rose on a wave of economic optimism after top global central banks led by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank acted jointly to allow European banks to borrow U.S. dollars on easier terms. the S&P 500 surged 3.5 percent and copper, an economic barometer, soared 5.5 percent.

Gold, a traditional safe haven, has recently tracked riskier assets such as equities. the correlation between bullion and the S&P 500 has risen to its tightest positive link in a year.

“You are seeing an enhancement of the loose monetary situation around the world and continued currency devaluation, and that’s what causing the rise in gold today,” said Michael Cuggino, portfolio manager of the Permanent Portfolio Funds.

Spot gold rose 1.8 percent to $1,745.89 an ounce by 2:31 p.m. EST, after hitting a two-week high of $1,749.63 earlier in the session.

Wednesday’s rally lifted bullion’s performance in November into positive territory, up almost 2 percent for the month.

U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled up $31.40 at $1,750.30. Volume came in line with its 30-day average, consistent with average or above-average turnover in the last 10 days.

“Gold is moving higher alongside every other risk asset, which is a bullish sign,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital.

The 25-day correlation-log between gold and the S&P 500 rose to 0.7, reflecting their tightest positive link in a year. (Graphic: r.reuters.com/duw35s )

Technical buying also supported prices as the metal broke above its 100-day average to reclaim the key support it had breached early last week.

“If gold can break above its recent highs and resistance at $1,800 an ounce, it’s in for another leg higher,” Sarhan said.

Daniel Hwang, senior technical strategist at FOREX.com, said gold will face considerable trendline resistance near $1,770 an ounce. A break above that will open the door for a test of $1,800 and possibly $1,900 an ounce, Hwang said.

COMEX gold options floor trader Jonathan Jossen reported a sizable COMEX floor order that involved selling two April $2,100 call options with the buying of each $1,800 April call. the so-called “bull call spread” strategy is seen bullish for the underlying gold futures.

The 25-day implied volatility in gold options, a gauge of bullion market risk, has fallen to its lowest in around a month, indicating some investors expect the recent range-bound trade in the underlying gold futures to continue, traders said.

Silver rose 2.9 percent to $32.83.

CHINA LOWERS RESERVE RATIO

Earlier in the session, gold had reversed losses after China moved to ease credit strains by cutting the reserve requirement ratio for its commercial lenders for the first time in nearly three years.

The move by the world’s biggest consumer of copper also sharply lifted the bellwether industrial metal and helped confirm gold’s status as an inflation hedge, traders said.

Also boosting gold-buying sentiment were surging U.S. pending home sales in October and news U.S. private-sector job growth accelerated in November, prompting some economists to raise their forecasts for Friday’s more comprehensive U.S. government labor report.

Platinum climbed 1.4 percent to $1,552 and palladium gained 4.3 percent to $608.50 an ounce. 2:31 PM EST LAST/ NET PCT LOW HIGH CURRENT

SETTLE CHNG CHNG VOL US Gold FEB 1750.30 31.40 1.8 1704.30 1754.70 167,888 US Silver MAR 32.804 0.854 2.7 31.120 32.995 45,876 US Plat JAN 1560.80 20.10 1.3 1513.00 1563.40 10,808 US Pall MAR 612.60 28.35 4.9 571.00 628.00 5,343

Gold 1745.89 31.60 1.8 1701.15 1749.63 Silver 32.830 0.940 2.9 31.140 32.930 Platinum 1552.00 21.01 1.4 1515.50 1558.00 Palladium 608.50 25.01 4.3 571.83 622.50

TOTAL MARKET VOLUME 30-D ATM VOLATILITY

CURRENT 30D AVG 250D AVG CURRENT CHG US Gold 188,987 182,015 194,401 26.09 -0.34 US Silver 50,476 60,067 79,725 44.01 -1.16 US Platinum 11,501 6,290 7,178 31 -3.00 US Palladium 5,596 5,118 4,430

(Additional reporting by Josephine Mason in new York, Rujun Shen in Singapore, Susan Thomas and Amanda Cooper in London; Editing by Dale Hudson)

Gold rises nearly 2 percent on cenbank move, China

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Global Concerns Affecting Gold Price

Last week gold managed to climb above the $1,750 per ounce mark on the back of the co-ordinated move by central banks to boost liquidity. when the US Federal Reserve allowed central banks to swap their own currencies for US dollars, the dollar fell and gold benefited.

Despite the increase in gold prices, Chinese demand continues to be just as high. although the Chinese government keeps very quiet about its gold reserves it is believed that China holds in excess of 33.89 million fine troy ounces as its reserves and that this is increasing rapidly. In 2007, China overtook South Africa as the world’s largest gold producer and China has been making the most of this cost advantage.

The Chinese however, are also in need of monetary support after The People’s Bank of China made it easier for banks to lend more money, by cutting the level of reserves the banks have to hold. over the past week, China’s central bank has had to intervene in the currency markets, but for once, it’s not been acting to keep the Renminbi weak against the dollar. The blame lies with China’s property bubble which seems about to burst. The good news is that China’s attempts to prop up the market appear to be working; but the bad news is that investors are beginning to realise that the Reminbi can fall as well as rise.

Also underpinning the gold price was the continued buying by central banks. South Korea is the latest bank to buy gold in an attempt to diversify its foreign reserves and protect against financial instability. a number of banks have disclosed information about their continuing gold purchases; these include Thailand, Russia and Bolivia. although gold seems to have currently lost its status as a safe-haven asset, increased demand from central banks is supporting gold prices.

EU leaders will be meeting in Brussels this morning (08/12/11) in order to try and agree on a deal to tackle the Euro Zone debt crisis. most investors and analysts have labelled this the ‘do or die’ moment for Europe. it is now apparent that any solution must be credible and enduring; the markets will no longer be fed drips and drabs of false hope. one way or another, EU leaders must announce a viable plan.

Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy are calling for renewed contracts between countries that enforce budgetary discipline with automatic penalties for those who overspend. However, similar sanctions were previously included in the contracts and those clearly weren’t enforced, so how much difference will this really make?

After Standard and Poor’s put all Euro zone countries on credit watch it seems that the main focus is on restoring market confidence and as such EU leaders appear to be hardening their positions. However, if the EU is to survive in the long run there needs to be improved solidarity and collective fiscal union.

The ECB (European Central Bank) has cut its main interest rate back to 1% ahead of the EU Summit. unfortunately, this is much of the same from the ECB and it doesn’t have the authority to do what is necessary to stop the debt crisis worsening. Italy and its debts are too big to be rescued by other governments so instead the attention continues to circle back to whether or not the ECB will have to surrender and print money. of course gold would benefit from this, as people would seek to invest in gold again, in search of safe-haven assets and protection from inflation.

Global Concerns Affecting Gold Price

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Peter Schiff’s Urgent Update to Gold & Silver Investors

Following the surprise move by the Fed and five other central banks to lower the interest rate of dollar swaps by 50 basis points, through Feb. 1, 2013, Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff issued a special and urgent update to investors.

“There’s an old expression that nobody rings a bell when it’s time to buy or sell,” Schiff began his video message of Wednesday.  “ . . . well, I think the world’s central banks rung a pretty loud bell today to buy precious metals.”

As the Dow opened on Wednesday, soaring more than 400 points, gold vaulting more than $30 per ounce and silver adding more than a buck following the Fed announcement that the world will soon be flooded with more dollars due to the coordinated cut in the swaps rate, the US currency dropped sharply against its peers which comprise the UDX. Sign-up for my 100% FREE Alerts!

“I believe that it [the dollar] is going to lose a lot more value, not just against other fiat currencies, but against real money, gold and silver,” Schiff continued.  “I think investors should be buying.  those of you who’ve been on the sidelines waiting for an opportunity to buy, I would not wait much longer; I would just buy.”

Wednesday’s ringing endorsement by central banks to sell dollars and buy precious metals—so far—has fit well into the call Schiff made in October for a lower dollar by year end—a bold call, indeed, in that, it flies in the face of famed FX Concept Founder John Taylor’s prediction for a euro collapse.  not many traders want to take the other side of a Taylor trade.

“What’s really frustrating is that we’re supposed to do well in a lousy world market,” Taylor told Bloomberg in an Oct. 12 interview. “We’re doing very badly.”

Nearly two weeks later, on Oct. 25, Schiff defiantly told KWN, “Our short-term target for the euro, maybe by year end, will be up near 1.48,” adding, “I think that’s going to catch a lot of people off guard who were writing the obituaries for the euro, to see the euro approaching the 1.50 level. the dollar index should be headed back down to the 72 level.”

Schiff recommend to KWN listeners to buy gold and silver as the hedge against the coming drop.  so far, Schiff is holding up quite well to senior Taylor.

“I think we will come pretty close to hitting $2,000 on gold this year,” Schiff predicted. “It would be hard for gold not to be above $2,000 in 2012.  I really think it would be unlikely that we wouldn’t see prices north of $2,000 next year.”  See BER article, Peter Schiff’s Boldest call Ever.

Fast forward to today, Schiff recommended to his video audience that new positions should be taken in gold and silver, with first-time buyers who’ve been waiting for a pullback to jump aboard.

“You have gold at around $1,700, silver around $32,” Schiff said, Wednesday.  “I think these are good positions to buy gold for the first time, if you still haven’t bought, or add to your positions if you already own.”

In addition to his recommendation to buy precious metals, Schiff reminded investors of the ongoing disinformation campaign waged against investors by central bankers and the media all through this crisis.  Schiff has continually stated, as far back as the early 2000s, that central bankers and ‘respected’ media outlets, to put it bluntly, “lie” to investors about the intentions of the Fed; it’s all part of, what famed trends forecaster Gerald Celente has said is, a CON-fidence game the Fed plays with the markets.

“Here’s the deal, Eric, they are suckering in the people to keep playing the market. This solved nothing,” Celente told KWN, Thursday.  “So when I see this, this is just a con game.  And anybody that sees the game, all they have to do is follow the money.  Where is the money going?  Look at what gold did, zoom it shot up!  Look what silver did, bam!  Everybody knows what’s going on, they are devaluing our currency.”

Schiff provided more detail than Celente about the latest Fed rouse, citing the curious timing of the Bernanke announcement of the day following the Standard & Poor’s large list of bank downgrades, underscoring what both gentlemen have been warning investors for a long time—and that is, that the game is “rigged” against investors of dollar-denominated paper assets and to buy gold.

“A lot of people think that what is going on is a bailout for the eurozone.  It’s not; it’s a bailout for the banks on both sides of the Atlantic,” Schiff explained.  “It’s not a coincidence . . . last night Standard & Poor’s downgraded credit ratings for about 20 major banks, including banks like Bank of America [and] Morgan Stanley.”

Moreover, Schiff noted a similar observation to zerohedge.com‘s post regarding Warren Buffet’s Bank of America’s share price, which, as of Tuesday, traded briefly and dangerously below the $5 mark—a mark at which pension funds and other large institutions must sell the stock, which would no doubt cause another Citigroup-like meltdown in shares of BAC.

“Before the bell [Wednesday], Bank of America shares were under five bucks, a new 52-week low, and this announcement came and the banks rallied,” Schiff said.  “I think this is a bank bailout, a la QE2.  This is not about economic growth; it’s about propping up insolvent financial institutions by creating inflation.”

More evidence of Schiff’s contention came from U.S.-based Forbes Magazine on Wednesday morning.  Forbes stated that it had observed central banks taking unusual steps to liquefy an unknown (undisclosed?) European bank in ways reminiscent of the 2008 financial system meltdown.

“It appears that a big European bank got close to failure last night,” stated Forbes.  “European banks, especially French banks, rely heavily on funding in the wholesale money markets.  It appears that a major bank was having difficulty funding its immediate liquidity needs. the cavalry was called in and has come to the successful rescue.”

Experienced Wall Street observers, such as Schiff, the staff of zerohedge.com and the journalists of Forbes understand the motives and obfuscations disseminated through communiques of central banks all too well.  And those “who do understand this dynamic will buy gold,” said Schiff.

And how high could the price of gold go?

Ironically, France-based Societe Generale issued a note to clients on Monday, a couple of days too soon from the Wednesday’s Fed’s bombshell announcement, in which, it stated, “A major liquidity crisis should not occur this time, as we think we are on the eve of major QE in the UK, U.S. and (a bit) later on in the EZ.”

If the analysts at SocGen had read zerohedge.com’s Friday post regarding a curious and massive blip on the Fed’s “Non-Reserve Balances” statement of an additional $88 billion to its “other” category, they may have wondered if another bank was about to blow up in the system and most likely would have suspended their analysis for a little while longer.

In any event, SocGen also stated it expects the price of gold to soar to nose-bleed heights in the wake of more central bank quantitative easing, as they need to catch up to the unprecedented rate and amount of debt destruction on both sides of the Atlantic.

“Buy gold ahead of QE3 as money creation has a strong impact on prices,” according to the SocGen release.  “Gold is highly sensitive to U.S. QE, as every dollar of QE goes into M0, triggering the debasement of the USD.  Gold = $8,500/Oz: to catch up with the increase in the monetary base since 1920 (as it did in the early 80s).  Gold = $1900/Oz: to close the gap with the monetary base increase since July 2007(QE1+QE2).”

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Peter Schiff’s Urgent Update to Gold & Silver Investors

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Gold Bars – An Incredible Investment

The very sound of the word gold makes you feel like you want to be rich. Gold bars are nothing but a quality of refined gold, or metallic gold. they are stored in central banks and are then traded by the banks and the bullion dealers are usually the 400-troy-ounce that in other words is 12.4 kilograms or 438.9 ounces.

There are two types of gold bars? One is called the casted and the other kind is known as minted. they are called that based on the method of manufacturing. whenever you wish to purchase gold, you should always read up on how they are made, as this does tend to affect the final price of the product.

The casted ones are put into ingot moulds and moulded to form the shape of the product while the minted ones are made using gold blocks and are very carefully hand cut to the required size from a flat piece of gold. the newest or the latest kind of gold bars are called the Chip Gold. It consists of a small ingot anywhere from one to 20 grams and it is the size of a credit or debit card only.

Most of us are aware that gold bars are publicised today more than they were in the past. There are many ways that gold is being advertised today and you can imagine the demand that has created. if you are looking to buy gold bars, you need to be very careful, as not all sources are reliable when you want to make such investments. There are many websites that have been created to give you information on how to go about buying gold bars. these websites have information that can help you make good deals on gold and protect you from being cheated. these online websites even teach you what factors to look out for while you consider buying gold.

Today, owning Gold Bars are not a luxury but has become a necessity and a way of life. you should also note that while you begin your search online that is not very safe as there can be many websites that are fraudulent. Ask around and be sure before you make any deal you have all the information you need. you need to keep in mind that when you buy you also have to pay a premium. So do not be surprised when you have to pay more than what you thought you had to.

Gold Bars – An Incredible Investment

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